The winners and losers from COVID-19 – and what it means for you

From restaurants and bars closing their doors, to thousands of Australians working almost permanently from home, the economic and business impact of COVID-19 has been huge.

In June, Australia’s record 28 years of growth ended with a bang, with a 7% fall in gross domestic product (GDP), our biggest ever slump. And while economic activity is forecast to bounce back strongly as restrictions ease, that doesn’t mean everything will just go back to the way it was before.

For one thing, no-one really knows when the effects of the virus will fully lift, making activities like overseas travel possible again. Furthermore, the economic fallout of the pandemic is also likely to be lasting, with the Reserve Bank of Australia projecting that it will take at least until December 2022 before we regain all the jobs lost this year.¹

Even after the economy has recovered, many of the changes we’ve seen this year are likely to remain. That’s because the pandemic has worked to accelerate long-term trends that were already underway – from the shift to online retail, to the rise of flexible and remote working. Together, trends like these are likely to transform the way we live, work and interact, often for the better.

As a result, Australian businesses and workplaces look set to change forever, creating winners as well as losers.

The winners and losers

So which industries and businesses have benefitted, and which have lost out?

One way to answer that question is to look at the recent ASX reporting season, when some of our biggest companies updated the market on their recent performance.

Among the winners were electronics and homewares retailers like JB Hi-Fi, Adairs and Nick Scali, all of which recorded bumper sales as Australians focused on making their homes and home offices as comfortable as possible. Four-wheel drive equipment maker ARB reported record order books, as people substituted outback road trips for overseas travel. And Domino’s Pizza saw sales up almost 12%, as many of us switched a big night out for a big night at home. (Spending at liquor retailers was also up – rising 37% in the year to July.²)

And the losers? First and most obviously, there are the restaurants, bars and clubs forced to shut down, then re-open with restricted numbers. Conference and event organisers have seen their business models all but wiped out, except those with the capacity to move online. Airlines and travel agents have suffered hugely. And owners of city office blocks in Sydney and Melbourne have seen vacancy rates lift as businesses discover the cost savings they can achieve with a home-based workforce.³

What it means for you

Whether you’re looking for work, planning a career change, or starting a business, these trends have important implications for us all. Here are some questions to consider before you take the next step:

• How can you tap into the big trends transforming the world of work?
• How will you make sure you’re in a winning industry or business?
• From retail to video-conferencing, the world is moving online. Do you have the skills you need to take part? If not, how will you improve your skills?
• In a world where many people work remotely, how do you appeal to employers and customers in different locations? And could it be time for a sea-change or tree-change?